Seasonal Variation in Conception: A Study for India, 2006-2021

Abstract

A seasonal pattern can be observed in humans in terms of conception for first and remaining births

order. Birth occurs throughout the year in India, but there are some seasons with higher birth frequencies. The
risk of conception may be affected by many potential confounders like age at marriage, year of marriage,
religious affiliation, occupational class of husband/father, and different regions and cultures apart from
environmental and climatic factors in India. To estimate the month of conception which leads to birth, we
have employed a fixed gestational period of 9 months when the first child was born alive because data on
conception is very difficult to obtain directly from the data source. In this paper, an attempt has been made to
see the pattern of conceptions in India. The study has been conducted with the data from National Family
Health Survey round five. We have found that there is a seasonal pattern of conception in India, in which
excess of first conception were found in the month of November i.e. 113.30 seasonal index followed by
October month i.e. 103.87 seasonal index for India. Similarly, some patterns of first and remaining birth order
conception has been observed among religions and different regions of India. This study provides evidence to
policymakers about when to accelerate contraceptive intervention among different religions and regions of
India.